SUBSCRIBE
Wed, Jun 29, 2022
Health For Mzansi
  • Trending
  • My Health
  • Conversations
    • Podcast
  • Grow It
  • Recipes
  • Choices
No Result
View All Result
  • Trending
  • My Health
  • Conversations
    • Podcast
  • Grow It
  • Recipes
  • Choices
No Result
View All Result
Health For Mzansi
No Result
View All Result

Could Covid-19 become endemic? An expert explains

by Staff Reporter
30th Aug 2021
in Trending
Reading Time: 6 mins read
A A
Is the Covid-19 virus likely to become endemic?

Many experts predict that the virus causing Covid-19 is here to stay. The most optimistic view is that we will learn to manage it and use the lessons learnt going forward. Photo: Supplied/Health For Mzansi

Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on Whatsapp

Experts predict that the SARS-CoV-2 virus (which causes Covid-19) is likely to become endemic. The duration of vaccine protection, social contact and transmissibility will play key roles in the timeline of a shift from pandemic to endemic. An immunologist explains what this means and what it might look like.

Explaining how Covid-19 will become endemic: Harvard associate professor in immunology, Yonatan Grad. Photo: Harvard University
Harvard associate professor in immunology Yonatan Grad. Photo: Supplied/Harvard University

With much of the world still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, experts predict the virus will become endemic.

The Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health asked immunologist Yonatan Grad what it will look like as Covid-19 continues to circulate in the months and years ahead. Grad is the Melvin J. and Geraldine L. Glimcher associate professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the Chan School.

ADVERTISEMENT

Control rather than elimination

Question: Many experts have said that they expect Covid-19 to become an endemic disease. How does a disease go from being acute to endemic? What factors shape the transition? And what is a likely timeline for Covid-19 to become endemic?

Grad: The expectation that Covid-19 will become endemic essentially means that the pandemic will not end with the virus disappearing. Instead, the optimistic view is that enough people will gain immune protection from vaccination and from natural infection, such that there will be less transmission and much less Covid-19-related hospitalisation and death, even as the virus continues to circulate.

ADVERTISEMENT

The expected continued circulation of SARS-CoV-2 stands in contrast with the first round of SARS in 2003 and with the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014, when public health measures ultimately stopped spread and brought both outbreaks to an end.

While there are important differences among the viruses and the contexts, this comparison underscores the critical need to improve our global public health infrastructure and surveillance systems to monitor for and help respond to the inevitable next potential pandemic virus.

Since viruses spread where there are enough susceptible individuals and enough contact among them to sustain spread, it’s hard to anticipate what the timeline will be for the expected shift of Covid-19 to endemicity.

It’s dependent on factors like the strength and duration of immune protection from vaccination and natural infection, our patterns of contact with one another that allow spread, and the transmissibility of the virus.

So, the patterns will likely differ considerably from what we saw with the other pandemics because of the heterogeneous responses to Covid-19 across the world — with some places engaging in “zero-Covid” policies, others with limited responses, and widely variable vaccine availability and uptake.

ADVERTISEMENT
How a disease becomes endemic: An explanation.
Past pandemics have led to massive changes in the way we live. We’ve come to accept them as normal. Photo: Supplied/Health For Mzansi

Other outbreaks have become endemic

Question: What does history tell us about how deadly viruses such as Covid-19 can, over time, become manageable threats?

Grad: We know of a few respiratory viruses that were introduced into the human population, swept across the globe and transitioned to endemic circulation, usually with annual wintertime peaks in incidence. The example most invoked these days is the 1918 flu pandemic, caused by an A/H1N1 influenza virus. But there are other more recent examples from influenza: the 1957 flu pandemic caused by an A/H2N2 influenza virus, the 1968 flu pandemic from an A/H3N2 influenza virus and the 2009 “swine flu” pandemic, from an A/H1N1 influenza virus.

The pandemics generally began with infection fatality rates higher than observed in the years following their introduction as the viruses continued to circulate.

While declining fatality rates after pandemics may be due to a number of factors, one likely key contributor is that the first round of exposure to a pathogen confers some degree of protection against reinfection and severity of disease if reinfection does occur. Vaccines confer protection in much the same way, as the data from the Covid-19 vaccines has demonstrated.

The possibility of annual vaccination

ALSO READ: Will we soon require a third shot of the vaccine?

Question: What is the likelihood that we will need booster shots every year?

Grad: The need for annual boosters isn’t clear and key biology and policy questions remain to be answered. On the biology side, how much antigenic evolution will we see in SARS-CoV-2? In other words, to what extent will it evolve to evade our immune system? We know of examples on both ends of the spectrum — some viruses, like influenza, require repeated vaccination because of its antigenic evolution, whereas others, like measles, are kept at bay for decades after childhood vaccination.

How long does immune protection last and what is the nature of that protection? How much does vaccine-conferred protection reduce the likelihood of infection, of severe disease if infected, or of the likelihood of transmission if infected? How quickly do each of these responses wane? On the policy side, what burden of disease are we willing to tolerate in a population?

Covid-19 will become endemic.
Experts believe that Covid-19 will become part of human existence. Photo: Supplied/Health For Mzansi

These policy questions extend beyond Covid-19, of course, and should prompt us to re-evaluate what we want to do about other preventable diseases. We’re in the midst of a wave of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), another respiratory virus that for most of us causes cold and flu-like symptoms but that can be much more severe in infants, the elderly and those with respiratory conditions.

We don’t yet have an approved vaccine or highly effective treatment for RSV. And while we have modestly effective influenza vaccines and therapeutics, we usually see between 20 000 and 60 000 deaths a year in the US from influenza.

Other diseases create burdens too

On a global scale, tuberculosis and malaria remain scourges that cause immense suffering. Investments in these areas and other measures that we’ve learned from Covid-19, such as the importance of ventilation and masking, can help reduce illness and death from a range of respiratory viruses and drive innovation in tools to tackle other infectious disease threats.

Past pandemics have led to massive changes in the way we live that we’ve come to accept as normal. Screens on our doors and windows helped keep out mosquitos that carried yellow fever and malaria. Sewer systems and access to clean water helped eliminate typhoid and cholera epidemics. Perhaps the lessons learned from Covid-19 in terms of disease prevention can yield similar long-term improvements in individual and global health.

This article was written for and first published by the World Economic Forum and has been republished under a creative commons license. Click here to read the original article.

ALSO READ: Are you a virus super spreader?

Tags: Covid-19EndemicHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Healthimmunologyinfectious disease
Share130Tweet81Send
Previous Post

Paediatric care a privilege for veteran doctor

Next Post

What to plant now that spring has (almost) sprung

Staff Reporter

Staff Reporter

Related Articles

When is a disease deemed a global emergency?
Trending

When is a disease deemed a global emergency?

by The Conversation
29th Jun 2022
0

The world has come a long way since the outbreak of cholera in the mid-1900s, and so too have the International Health Regulations. When there is a disease outbreak, a number of...

Read more
Monkeypox: Disease experts give the true facts

Monkeypox: Disease experts give the true facts

28th Jun 2022
Tavern tragedy: Teen issues under the microscope

Tavern tragedy: Teen issues under the microscope

28th Jun 2022
Dance therapy: Dance and movement therapy offers a self-empowering mind-body approach to mental health treatment. Photo: Supplied/Health For Mzansi

Dancing can help your brain, so get your groove on!

27th Jun 2022
Next Post
What to plant in September.

What to plant now that spring has (almost) sprung

Always feeling tired? Your food may be the problem.

Can my eating habits be the reason I'm tired?

Waiting for an ambulance.

Woman dies waiting for ambulance for seven hours

Stories

Finding a happy medium: Divorce vs co-parenting
Loyiso taps into liquid gold of extra virgin olive oil
Youth transform dumping site into thriving food garden
Winter: An ideal time to plant root veggies, take stock
Early pregnancy care essential for moms-to-be
Meet Mzansi’s Keto Queen, Sharney Blackway
Heart health: Keep your diet lean, clean and green
Yummy Meatless Wellington
No Result
View All Result

Categories

  • Choices (40)
  • Conversations (74)
  • Featured (1)
  • Grow It (52)
  • My Health (103)
  • Podcast (43)
  • Recipes (56)
  • Remedies (5)
  • Trending (274)

Recent

Olive vs vegetable oil: Soak up the best of both worlds

Olive vs vegetable oil: Soak up the best of both worlds

29th Jun 2022
When is a disease deemed a global emergency?

When is a disease deemed a global emergency?

29th Jun 2022
Boost your iron levels with Mangale’s pap and spinach

Boost your iron levels with Mangale’s pap and spinach

28th Jun 2022
Health For Mzansi

Contact us
Office: +27 21 879 1824

Marketing: +27 71 147 0388
News: hello@healthformzansi.co.za
Advertising: sales@foodformzansi.co.za

Privacy Policy
Cookie Policy

cropped-Dr-Leago-Sebesho.jpg

Brilliant, young Bara doctor a star on the rise!

cropped-Organic-1.jpeg

Winter: An ideal time to plant root veggies, take stock

cropped-poster-26.webp

Young doctors bring cheap private healthcare to Flats

Olive vs vegetable oil: Soak up the best of both worlds

When is a disease deemed a global emergency?

Boost your iron levels with Mangale’s pap and spinach

Monkeypox: Disease experts give the true facts

Tavern tragedy: Teen issues under the microscope

Dancing can help your brain, so get your groove on!

No Result
View All Result
  • Trending
  • My Health
  • Conversations
    • Podcast
  • Grow It
  • Recipes
  • Choices

© 2021 Health For Mzansi | Farmers For Change Pty (Ltd)

By continuing the use of our Website, you are explicitly and actively consenting to our processing of your personal information as per our Privacy Policy.
Cookie SettingsACCEPT
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
SAVE & ACCEPT
Go to mobile version
Finding a happy medium: Divorce vs co-parenting Loyiso taps into liquid gold of extra virgin olive oil Youth transform dumping site into thriving food garden Winter: An ideal time to plant root veggies, take stock Early pregnancy care essential for moms-to-be Meet Mzansi’s Keto Queen, Sharney Blackway Heart health: Keep your diet lean, clean and green Yummy Meatless Wellington